* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 30 31 32 32 30 29 29 30 32 34 36 37 38 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 30 31 32 32 30 29 29 30 32 34 36 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 27 26 25 24 22 22 21 21 22 23 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 18 17 18 22 22 22 19 17 13 9 6 5 1 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 43 70 82 76 62 64 44 43 38 40 40 48 42 54 175 188 183 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 137 139 140 140 138 136 134 133 133 133 134 133 134 133 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 57 55 55 52 51 52 53 49 49 47 46 44 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -15 -3 7 13 26 19 8 -1 2 -23 -18 -15 -7 -3 7 6 200 MB DIV 27 30 41 35 28 21 -2 -26 -31 -25 -18 -16 11 3 -11 -3 5 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 1 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2224 2257 2291 2334 2377 2361 2296 2251 2200 2148 2101 2056 2015 1977 1926 1892 1879 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.3 130.9 131.4 132.0 132.5 133.4 134.0 134.4 134.8 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 27. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 130.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.34 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.44 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.87 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 8.1% 6.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.0% 2.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##