* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092020 08/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 48 55 67 77 83 83 76 67 58 51 44 40 36 33 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 48 55 67 77 83 83 76 67 58 51 44 40 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 46 54 62 69 70 62 51 42 35 30 26 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 8 9 10 6 4 7 13 14 15 16 11 7 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 1 1 -4 0 -1 0 3 0 -4 0 1 7 2 SHEAR DIR 11 6 349 328 315 325 328 263 207 210 208 211 203 218 228 254 320 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.1 29.1 28.6 27.4 25.7 25.1 24.2 24.2 23.7 24.1 24.9 24.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 171 172 167 157 152 139 122 115 105 105 99 103 111 112 119 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 77 73 70 65 62 58 58 53 49 42 41 36 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 13 15 16 19 22 22 21 18 15 13 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 4 20 25 20 40 15 1 -3 -3 25 51 54 41 38 33 200 MB DIV 58 66 72 47 57 40 49 30 31 9 20 20 2 11 -7 -12 -35 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 -10 -9 -5 2 11 12 6 5 3 5 5 3 LAND (KM) 328 334 338 366 384 525 529 628 739 911 1039 1212 1403 1567 1726 1937 2142 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 10 9 7 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 37 36 29 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 27. 26. 25. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 6. 11. 18. 20. 18. 14. 10. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -1. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 18. 25. 37. 47. 53. 53. 46. 37. 28. 21. 14. 10. 6. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 102.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 NINE 08/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.48 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 41.0% 29.7% 20.6% 0.0% 25.1% 26.9% 36.7% Logistic: 10.3% 51.3% 28.3% 20.0% 7.3% 35.3% 33.4% 10.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 23.4% 9.6% 3.0% 0.3% 7.2% 3.1% 0.3% Consensus: 9.2% 38.6% 22.5% 14.5% 2.6% 22.5% 21.1% 15.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 42.0% 23.0% 7.0% 3.0% 16.0% 11.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 NINE 08/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##