* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/30/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 46 49 48 44 41 36 29 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 46 49 48 44 41 36 29 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 38 36 30 25 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 11 7 4 7 10 12 12 14 13 17 21 17 13 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 3 0 2 -2 3 -1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 196 195 189 185 170 32 339 314 295 296 250 243 249 254 237 227 222 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.7 24.8 20.3 17.8 15.6 16.0 17.5 17.8 17.6 18.0 17.7 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 145 142 133 114 68 67 68 68 67 65 64 63 62 62 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.5 -55.2 -56.2 -56.5 -56.7 -57.0 -57.2 -57.2 -56.8 -56.2 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 45 46 45 47 51 50 49 48 51 51 48 46 38 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -73 -75 -89 -109 -113 -117 -140 -146 -141 -107 -62 -57 -74 -67 -31 -17 200 MB DIV 12 -16 -10 1 -13 5 36 16 11 13 12 9 -2 0 -9 -10 -34 700-850 TADV 4 0 2 3 0 5 15 16 11 36 -19 6 1 25 11 -10 -9 LAND (KM) 1855 2042 2221 2394 2562 2604 2241 2012 2023 1706 1353 1363 1541 1221 959 662 500 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.5 26.2 27.1 28.2 31.1 34.6 38.0 40.8 42.7 43.7 44.0 44.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 178.1 179.9 181.6 183.2 184.7 186.9 187.3 185.4 180.4 172.5 163.2 154.3 147.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 18 17 18 21 27 33 34 29 23 19 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 14 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 8. 3. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 19. 18. 14. 11. 6. -1. -11. -19. -30. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.0 178.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/30/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.14 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.51 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.18 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 17.1% 9.1% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 5.7% 3.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/30/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##