* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072020 07/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 29 28 24 22 21 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 29 28 24 22 21 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 29 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 12 15 15 18 19 24 24 30 32 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 3 6 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 74 55 82 98 130 173 197 207 239 240 243 237 242 243 250 257 256 SST (C) 25.6 25.1 24.5 24.0 23.6 23.0 23.0 23.3 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.0 23.2 23.5 24.1 24.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 114 108 103 99 92 92 95 93 93 93 89 91 95 102 109 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 57 51 43 38 32 29 27 27 27 28 25 23 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -31 -47 -58 -46 -47 -50 -42 -49 -39 -46 -72 -86 -85 -63 -55 -42 200 MB DIV 44 22 11 10 3 -4 -20 -5 -7 -20 -9 0 -7 -4 -17 -1 -6 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 5 9 8 16 16 18 14 8 0 -18 -31 -40 -41 -37 LAND (KM) 1813 1823 1846 1890 1938 2018 1941 1769 1616 1495 1411 1360 1318 1253 1128 956 755 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.3 22.1 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.2 25.8 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.7 130.5 131.4 132.3 134.3 136.3 138.1 139.8 141.3 142.5 143.4 144.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 5 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -16. -20. -24. -29. -37. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 128.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072020 SEVEN 07/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072020 SEVEN 07/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##