* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 43 40 37 34 28 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 43 40 37 34 28 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 41 37 34 32 29 25 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 8 5 6 2 10 13 18 23 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 4 2 2 -1 -5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 229 252 280 299 301 311 193 242 268 283 297 302 298 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.7 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 138 137 134 131 125 119 116 114 112 112 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 56 59 54 49 45 40 38 34 29 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 15 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 30 23 24 15 7 12 18 13 1 4 2 200 MB DIV 39 31 8 -10 -1 26 9 -12 -9 -13 -25 -29 -42 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -3 0 -1 -3 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1797 1900 1996 2072 2151 2301 2246 2097 1941 1794 1633 1469 1315 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.0 17.2 17.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 125.9 127.1 128.2 129.3 130.4 132.4 134.1 135.4 136.7 138.0 139.5 141.0 142.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 9 5 2 2 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -24. -30. -36. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 125.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 277.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 19.2% 15.7% 12.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 7.3% 5.6% 4.3% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##