* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 58 60 58 57 55 51 50 46 42 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 58 60 58 57 55 51 50 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 56 56 52 48 45 43 42 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 2 8 8 12 9 5 4 5 5 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 0 3 -1 1 -3 0 -3 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 99 103 186 214 201 213 218 291 318 350 337 298 302 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 142 139 139 136 131 128 126 123 119 115 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 77 73 71 69 67 61 58 54 51 47 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 20 21 20 20 21 20 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 34 42 43 42 48 53 60 66 59 62 51 50 38 200 MB DIV 35 34 34 35 22 20 40 5 20 12 33 23 17 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 0 2 3 1 -4 -4 -4 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 1209 1258 1314 1359 1401 1528 1702 1875 2035 2190 2244 2070 1915 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.9 118.9 120.0 121.0 123.2 125.6 128.0 130.1 132.1 133.8 135.4 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 21 13 9 14 5 6 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 13. 15. 13. 12. 10. 6. 5. 1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.2 116.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 27.3% 21.1% 17.6% 15.8% 20.1% 17.8% 9.6% Logistic: 12.3% 31.2% 15.8% 11.7% 6.4% 8.2% 4.9% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 15.5% 4.0% 1.3% 0.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 10.3% 24.7% 13.6% 10.2% 7.6% 9.9% 7.7% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##