* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 07/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 32 34 34 36 37 38 40 41 42 44 45 48 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 30 32 34 34 36 37 38 40 41 42 44 45 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 28 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 9 6 5 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 5 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 19 21 18 7 301 298 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.2 27.3 26.1 25.6 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 149 149 139 126 121 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 69 70 69 69 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -11 -21 -18 -17 -13 -17 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -9 -4 9 7 7 15 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 2 7 5 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 650 718 787 886 1006 1199 1434 1669 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 15 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 14 12 10 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 110.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 07/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.42 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.93 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 13.0% 9.2% 5.6% 0.0% 11.5% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.9% 3.3% 1.9% 0.0% 3.9% 4.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 07/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##