* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 07/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 31 37 43 46 46 45 43 42 39 37 31 28 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 31 37 43 46 46 45 43 42 39 37 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 21 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 20 20 22 27 27 17 15 15 16 20 21 23 25 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 6 1 -2 -2 -1 1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 56 65 63 53 52 42 37 20 360 315 303 288 289 280 266 256 272 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.3 28.3 28.5 26.9 26.7 24.8 25.5 24.7 23.9 23.9 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 159 158 155 149 150 152 135 133 113 121 112 103 103 106 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 77 79 78 74 74 72 71 68 66 63 60 57 55 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 5 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 21 38 24 8 7 0 -2 -1 -3 -23 -28 -39 -35 -34 -23 -21 200 MB DIV 59 57 86 75 73 47 12 20 2 17 6 20 16 -8 -16 4 6 700-850 TADV 3 6 4 5 3 -4 3 -1 2 3 7 6 13 12 6 16 11 LAND (KM) 297 325 362 409 447 508 614 787 891 1081 1305 1586 1827 2072 2075 1753 1435 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.1 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.9 98.4 99.8 101.1 102.4 105.1 108.1 111.2 114.5 117.9 121.5 125.1 128.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 30 34 32 24 12 11 17 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. 38. 37. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 17. 23. 26. 26. 25. 23. 22. 20. 17. 11. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.1 96.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 07/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 2.0% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 07/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##