* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 13 11 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 268 270 265 267 253 259 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 22.6 23.1 22.9 22.6 22.5 23.0 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 89 94 92 89 88 93 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 52 51 49 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 12 12 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 49 44 34 23 12 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -19 -31 -16 -8 -11 -12 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 6 -3 4 10 2 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1364 1463 1567 1665 1766 1911 1936 1670 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.2 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.9 127.2 128.5 129.8 131.0 133.6 136.4 139.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -23. -28. -33. -36. -39. -41. -43. -45. -46. -46. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.6 125.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##