* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 48 45 41 34 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 48 45 41 34 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 48 44 41 34 29 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 5 5 10 11 13 10 11 13 17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -6 -4 -2 0 -1 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 35 19 354 347 267 282 264 256 270 282 295 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.7 23.0 23.1 22.9 22.4 22.6 22.3 22.5 23.0 23.0 23.6 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 100 93 94 92 86 89 86 88 93 93 98 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 60 58 53 52 49 48 42 40 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 22 20 19 16 13 12 9 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 58 62 56 59 60 51 39 23 20 -6 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 8 4 2 -19 -8 -20 -8 -18 -12 -11 -3 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 7 3 -2 0 13 -1 11 1 6 3 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 845 938 1010 1078 1154 1318 1519 1721 1847 1921 1658 1439 1276 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.7 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.3 121.5 122.7 123.9 126.2 128.7 131.6 134.0 136.7 139.4 141.7 143.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 11 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. -20. -23. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -24. -26. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -29. -37. -44. -51. -55. -59. -60. -60. -60. -60. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.5 119.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##