* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 57 55 48 42 35 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 57 55 48 42 35 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 58 55 51 44 37 32 27 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 5 3 5 3 12 10 11 13 10 12 22 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 0 -4 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 54 47 53 27 334 250 258 250 246 248 267 287 305 279 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 25.9 24.6 24.1 24.1 23.2 22.8 22.6 22.6 22.4 22.6 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 124 110 105 105 95 91 89 89 87 89 97 100 105 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 70 71 69 63 58 53 51 49 46 44 42 40 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 25 24 24 22 20 18 15 14 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 48 39 37 44 68 63 66 54 43 28 30 9 4 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 50 34 21 9 -2 -19 -23 -16 -14 -8 -32 -20 -16 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -5 0 7 0 9 7 4 16 6 15 8 11 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 623 681 740 829 929 1094 1264 1449 1644 1814 1957 1807 1565 1284 990 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.3 22.7 22.8 22.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 116.1 117.4 118.7 120.0 122.6 125.1 127.5 129.9 132.5 135.1 137.7 140.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -16. -21. -22. -23. -23. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -18. -25. -34. -40. -47. -50. -54. -56. -57. -57. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.4 114.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##