* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 62 60 53 47 39 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 62 60 53 47 39 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 58 54 46 39 33 28 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 3 6 10 11 12 11 11 10 12 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -5 -3 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 58 60 62 56 47 1 261 278 266 264 274 311 318 325 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 25.8 24.5 24.2 23.1 23.1 22.5 22.7 22.4 22.6 23.4 23.5 24.0 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 123 109 106 94 94 88 90 87 89 97 98 104 107 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 71 70 65 62 57 53 51 49 43 40 34 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 25 25 23 21 18 17 14 12 8 6 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 47 43 43 74 66 72 71 56 48 32 27 7 -1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 19 45 28 11 19 -15 -11 -29 -4 -20 -38 -34 -21 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -6 -3 0 3 0 7 1 9 5 10 4 5 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 581 643 685 755 842 1026 1184 1356 1566 1787 1941 1874 1607 1337 1061 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.9 116.2 117.6 118.9 121.6 124.1 126.5 129.1 131.8 134.4 137.0 139.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 13 12 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -21. -22. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. -0. -7. -13. -21. -29. -37. -43. -50. -53. -56. -56. -56. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.9 113.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 8.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##