* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP032020 06/30/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 23 26 30 33 34 35 37 39 42 45 46 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 23 26 30 33 34 35 37 39 42 45 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 11 12 15 12 9 10 13 16 12 9 5 8 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 7 4 7 4 0 3 5 5 1 SHEAR DIR 357 347 330 327 316 288 278 252 211 218 221 233 234 256 299 306 293 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.0 28.0 28.2 27.9 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 150 150 150 151 146 145 147 143 140 146 149 146 146 149 153 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 41 38 36 35 35 38 39 39 38 39 40 42 45 46 46 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 10 12 8 0 -11 -11 -17 -20 -17 -10 -11 -17 -29 -37 -49 200 MB DIV 2 0 8 11 5 0 32 61 59 25 8 -8 -1 2 1 -5 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1224 1215 1197 1193 1194 1267 1390 1487 1572 1678 1782 1919 2096 2294 2519 2756 2847 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.9 10.3 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.7 153.0 154.6 156.3 157.9 161.1 164.0 166.6 168.8 170.9 172.5 174.2 176.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 9 8 9 10 10 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 33 39 46 48 49 43 43 42 33 28 35 42 32 19 21 24 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 17. 20. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.6 151.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 BORIS 06/30/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.8% 3.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 BORIS 06/30/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##