* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP032020 06/30/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 35 38 39 40 42 44 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 35 38 39 40 42 44 48 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 22 21 20 19 17 17 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 9 11 13 12 10 9 11 16 15 8 4 5 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 3 4 5 8 1 -1 7 9 6 SHEAR DIR 15 3 339 333 323 297 271 275 210 206 221 238 235 284 335 333 337 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 151 150 148 148 148 148 148 144 142 146 149 148 148 150 152 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 41 41 38 37 36 37 40 43 42 40 38 42 43 49 50 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 6 3 2 -8 -6 -13 -3 -8 -17 -11 -8 -12 -16 -34 -36 200 MB DIV 0 -5 0 6 17 -6 11 50 98 48 4 -20 -18 -16 0 -1 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -2 -2 2 0 -4 -4 1 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1236 1224 1223 1215 1211 1272 1380 1524 1600 1699 1790 1933 2123 2329 2540 2783 2800 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 8.5 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.4 8.9 9.3 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.6 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.7 152.0 153.6 155.2 157.0 160.3 163.3 166.1 168.5 170.6 172.3 174.1 176.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 17 17 16 14 13 11 10 8 9 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 37 44 50 50 41 43 44 34 31 37 44 39 25 24 26 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. 36. 38. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. 19. 23. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.9 150.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 BORIS 06/30/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.9% 3.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 22.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 7.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 BORIS 06/30/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##