* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP032020 06/30/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 23 27 30 34 37 38 39 40 42 44 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 23 27 30 34 37 38 39 40 42 44 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 22 21 21 21 20 19 18 17 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 12 12 10 5 12 13 17 16 13 9 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 0 2 1 5 4 0 1 4 10 SHEAR DIR 352 1 357 334 322 303 291 272 184 200 217 205 199 196 213 219 275 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 149 152 149 149 152 148 149 147 142 146 149 148 148 150 152 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 40 42 42 40 38 38 39 44 47 48 43 46 49 52 53 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -7 -3 -5 -8 -7 -9 -13 0 -1 -5 -3 -5 -3 -1 -7 -25 200 MB DIV 3 0 3 0 3 12 6 48 78 61 36 4 -1 10 6 25 48 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 1 1 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 1247 1232 1232 1225 1225 1276 1380 1531 1605 1698 1807 1940 2106 2307 2544 2818 2827 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 8.8 8.3 8.0 7.9 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.4 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.7 151.0 152.4 154.1 155.8 159.3 162.5 165.5 168.1 170.2 172.2 174.0 176.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 17 17 17 15 15 12 10 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 26 40 47 50 51 44 40 35 34 38 45 41 23 23 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 149.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 BORIS 06/30/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.32 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.27 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 14.2% 9.4% 2.4% 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% 15.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 9.9% 7.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 BORIS 06/30/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##