* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP032020 06/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 33 32 28 26 23 21 21 21 22 23 24 26 27 28 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 33 32 28 26 23 21 21 21 22 23 24 26 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 27 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 3 3 1 -2 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 204 201 195 178 173 201 246 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 27.1 26.8 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 135 133 130 129 135 132 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 50 48 42 41 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 17 8 -2 -8 -26 -22 -31 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 35 7 7 0 -18 -8 -2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -6 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1987 1919 1851 1793 1736 1593 1443 1295 1175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.2 138.8 139.4 140.0 140.5 141.9 143.7 145.6 147.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 7 6 4 3 2 14 17 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.5 138.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 BORIS 06/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.27 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 21.4% 13.6% 11.9% 9.1% 14.0% 13.1% 8.2% Logistic: 0.9% 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.7% 5.0% 4.0% 3.1% 4.7% 4.4% 3.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 BORIS 06/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##