* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032020 06/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 24 22 20 18 17 18 19 21 23 25 27 28 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 24 22 20 18 17 18 19 21 23 25 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 2 3 5 1 -2 -7 -6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 202 215 200 199 167 171 210 249 272 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 137 135 132 129 133 133 133 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 52 51 49 45 43 40 43 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 7 6 7 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 39 22 8 -12 -20 -24 -34 -32 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 51 59 44 12 -7 -10 -11 -5 -9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -10 -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2158 2092 2026 1964 1903 1787 1659 1502 1341 1201 1082 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.8 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.7 137.3 137.8 138.3 138.8 139.9 141.2 142.9 144.8 146.9 149.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 5 7 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 13 9 7 3 1 5 18 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 136.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 THREE 06/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.37 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 20.7% 14.0% 12.4% 0.0% 15.3% 13.9% 9.3% Logistic: 2.7% 7.0% 6.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 9.3% 6.9% 4.5% 0.2% 5.2% 4.6% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 THREE 06/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##