* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032020 06/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 27 26 26 26 25 23 21 20 20 22 23 25 27 28 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 27 26 26 26 25 23 21 20 20 22 23 25 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 8 10 9 9 8 8 8 12 15 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 1 4 1 0 -4 -5 -2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 207 191 212 209 169 152 194 236 267 300 314 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.6 27.0 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 138 135 130 129 134 131 133 138 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 55 55 52 51 47 42 41 40 46 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 8 8 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 54 53 42 16 -3 -19 -26 -31 -41 -29 -30 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 42 68 54 40 -1 -10 -5 -10 -11 -10 12 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 -9 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2251 2180 2109 2050 1992 1884 1744 1588 1415 1264 1168 1061 964 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.1 11.5 11.1 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.9 136.5 137.1 137.6 138.1 139.0 140.3 141.9 143.8 145.8 147.7 150.0 152.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 6 7 9 9 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 16 16 15 11 6 2 2 10 11 4 9 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 135.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 THREE 06/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.40 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 23.7% 16.6% 14.3% 0.0% 17.3% 16.0% 10.1% Logistic: 0.8% 2.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.6% 6.2% 4.9% 0.0% 5.8% 5.3% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 THREE 06/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##