* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032020 06/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 28 27 26 26 24 22 21 21 21 23 26 28 30 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 28 27 26 26 24 22 21 21 21 23 26 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 4 7 8 11 10 8 8 7 10 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 3 2 3 0 1 -3 -6 -5 -2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 244 193 186 196 194 168 207 240 279 297 317 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.3 26.8 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 139 137 135 134 131 133 136 137 132 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 60 58 58 56 53 49 45 44 47 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 40 42 31 3 -20 -34 -39 -41 -26 -11 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 2 12 27 30 1 -1 -7 6 -1 -3 -1 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -6 -7 -7 -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2339 2278 2217 2145 2074 1956 1849 1685 1535 1371 1216 1098 1044 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.5 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.1 11.6 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.1 135.7 136.2 136.8 137.3 138.2 139.2 140.8 142.4 144.3 146.4 148.6 150.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 8 9 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 15 15 7 5 2 4 15 11 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -4. -2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 135.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 THREE 06/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.57 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 21.2% 19.1% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.2% 7.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 THREE 06/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##