* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032020 06/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 23 23 21 19 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 23 23 21 19 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 6 8 11 11 12 13 12 11 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 3 4 5 4 2 -3 -6 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 269 261 218 199 202 191 193 211 241 262 291 312 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 137 136 135 134 134 130 128 131 133 131 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 60 58 58 55 52 45 42 42 45 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 6 4 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 35 39 44 39 7 -23 -42 -43 -39 -33 -17 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -5 15 26 39 9 0 -13 7 -2 -4 -2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -9 -8 -3 0 0 2 0 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2402 2336 2269 2206 2142 2019 1903 1746 1581 1405 1228 1096 1011 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.4 13.0 13.2 13.2 13.0 12.6 12.1 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.4 135.0 135.5 136.0 136.5 137.4 138.3 139.8 141.5 143.5 145.8 148.0 150.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 8 9 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 15 13 11 10 8 6 2 2 3 8 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 25. 25. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -11. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -9. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 134.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 THREE 06/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.37 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 18.9% 16.4% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.1% 6.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 THREE 06/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##