* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032020 06/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 29 27 29 26 24 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 29 27 29 26 24 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 30 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 7 8 10 12 13 13 15 15 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -1 2 4 5 6 0 -7 -9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 337 246 222 186 177 196 199 203 239 274 296 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.3 26.3 26.7 26.5 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 136 135 134 134 132 126 127 131 128 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 62 60 60 56 54 46 41 39 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 11 9 11 9 7 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 42 46 47 28 -6 -22 -40 -38 -39 -31 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -29 -5 8 21 25 -1 -3 -10 -2 -13 -14 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2495 2409 2323 2252 2181 2069 1933 1796 1610 1413 1241 1091 959 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.4 13.2 13.6 13.8 13.5 12.9 12.7 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.5 134.3 135.0 135.6 136.2 136.9 137.9 139.1 140.9 143.1 145.4 147.4 149.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 10 11 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 13 11 11 7 5 3 1 1 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -1. -4. -6. -11. -13. -16. -16. -14. -11. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 133.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 THREE 06/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.16 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 15.4% 14.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 9.0% 6.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.3% 6.9% 3.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 THREE 06/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##