* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP022020 05/31/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 27 32 35 39 42 42 42 44 46 50 52 54 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 34 37 36 32 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 28 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 20 17 15 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 245 239 247 241 239 249 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.2 31.0 30.9 30.5 29.9 29.8 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 171 170 169 161 160 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 86 87 85 85 83 84 81 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 67 65 73 80 82 108 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 140 160 120 106 98 112 89 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 12 10 1 0 -5 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -135 -148 -143 -70 -11 22 42 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.5 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.8 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.3 90.5 91.0 91.5 92.5 93.3 93.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 8 7 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 34 6 9 42 27 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 30. 34. 37. 41. 44. 47. 50. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 10. 14. 17. 17. 17. 19. 21. 25. 27. 29. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 90.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022020 AMANDA 05/31/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.82 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 20.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 6.8% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 9.5% 51.1% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.2% 11.0% 7.7% 0.4% 0.2% 9.6% 24.0% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022020 AMANDA 05/31/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##