* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022017 05/31/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 43 46 48 51 52 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 43 46 48 51 52 52 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 35 36 38 40 43 48 53 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 4 3 4 4 5 8 11 10 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -6 -4 -2 -4 -4 -4 -7 -5 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 207 172 157 187 186 151 176 136 146 150 179 164 176 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 156 156 155 155 154 154 155 155 154 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 76 74 72 69 68 59 59 53 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 52 56 55 51 49 47 46 35 58 25 44 18 200 MB DIV 123 114 125 92 86 86 49 46 22 22 17 43 47 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 235 212 189 164 138 105 78 56 40 43 71 80 73 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.2 15.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 97.7 97.6 97.4 97.2 96.6 96.3 96.3 96.6 96.8 97.1 97.6 98.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 14 18 20 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 97.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022017 TWO 05/31/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.75 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 21.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022017 TWO 05/31/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##