* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992019 10/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 37 38 39 39 39 39 40 41 42 43 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 37 38 39 39 39 39 40 41 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 32 31 31 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 17 18 17 11 16 19 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -2 -1 0 -2 0 3 4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 297 10 50 83 109 141 156 159 115 108 107 110 117 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 141 141 141 141 141 141 138 139 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 52 53 50 46 42 40 34 31 29 33 36 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 37 20 13 8 -14 -8 -1 3 -2 -5 -24 200 MB DIV 28 52 44 12 17 -1 -29 -41 -75 -74 -49 -21 -28 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2206 2220 2235 2194 2154 2082 2051 2037 2111 2136 2113 2075 2045 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 4 4 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 126.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992019 INVEST 10/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.8% 29.1% 37.8% 9.2% 14.5% 0.7% 0.2% 25.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 10.6% 12.7% 3.1% 4.9% 0.3% 0.1% 8.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992019 INVEST 10/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##