* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 07/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 26 26 26 28 23 21 21 20 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 26 26 26 28 23 21 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 10 13 13 18 20 19 19 22 3 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 -2 3 2 -1 5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 177 248 243 259 260 264 250 268 292 320 264 212 237 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 26.9 27.3 26.8 26.0 26.6 26.0 26.5 27.1 27.1 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 141 134 139 134 126 131 124 129 135 134 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 69 69 66 62 57 56 55 52 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 24 28 26 26 31 48 41 42 28 14 0 6 -3 200 MB DIV 116 112 63 59 63 56 26 37 24 -5 -29 3 30 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -5 -6 -1 0 1 5 -2 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 2432 2387 2233 2083 1928 1587 1241 982 783 678 587 559 575 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.3 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.4 14.1 13.9 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 132.1 133.4 134.8 136.2 137.7 140.9 144.2 146.9 149.3 151.3 153.3 155.0 156.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 15 17 15 13 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 11 14 7 15 2 3 6 7 7 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 25. 29. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 8. 3. 1. 1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 132.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 07/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 15.8% 6.8% 3.4% 1.5% 3.5% 5.2% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.5% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5% 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 07/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX