* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 07/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 28 33 39 46 51 52 56 58 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 28 33 39 46 51 52 56 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 31 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 11 15 14 7 5 11 9 8 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 0 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 355 349 347 336 345 359 4 53 160 176 183 116 109 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 138 138 142 145 144 145 144 144 142 143 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 68 69 71 71 71 69 64 63 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 12 13 13 14 14 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -28 -36 -43 -36 -42 -56 -54 -38 -23 -5 -7 -3 200 MB DIV 11 7 8 16 33 45 19 -12 9 1 -4 -15 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 3 1 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 935 982 999 1046 1103 1221 1282 1276 1228 1253 1372 1593 1839 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.0 13.6 13.6 14.2 14.8 14.8 14.0 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.9 113.9 114.7 115.6 116.8 117.2 117.1 117.2 118.3 120.0 122.3 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 5 1 2 5 7 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 14 11 16 19 19 16 16 20 20 20 14 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 27. 31. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 111.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##