* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 08/31/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 55 64 72 78 82 83 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 55 64 72 78 82 83 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 34 38 43 49 55 61 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 8 6 5 3 3 1 3 2 4 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 3 -1 -1 -4 -1 -2 -3 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 243 205 163 178 201 265 340 342 22 7 322 129 162 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.9 26.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 160 159 157 155 145 143 143 142 130 117 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 72 71 69 71 70 68 64 62 59 57 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 14 17 20 21 24 26 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 2 8 0 -7 -1 3 10 5 14 25 30 54 40 200 MB DIV 96 118 124 76 34 34 29 10 24 55 20 25 -4 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -7 -5 -6 -1 -1 3 2 LAND (KM) 737 731 736 763 767 808 859 846 882 912 933 986 1045 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.5 14.6 15.6 16.7 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.4 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.2 107.0 107.9 108.8 110.7 112.7 114.7 116.2 117.4 118.4 119.9 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 33 32 29 24 24 13 12 16 16 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 21. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 30. 39. 47. 53. 57. 58. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 105.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 08/31/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 08/31/19 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING