* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 07/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 11 14 23 19 28 21 16 23 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -2 3 8 -1 -3 2 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 349 334 313 297 293 313 308 318 314 300 271 275 269 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.4 25.7 25.0 24.4 23.9 23.6 23.7 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 147 147 139 121 113 105 99 93 97 99 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 68 67 63 62 59 59 53 48 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 0 4 -2 0 -20 -10 -54 -40 -33 -22 -8 4 200 MB DIV 22 14 36 72 102 115 56 -2 -23 -10 -60 -37 -38 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 -1 -7 -15 -5 -3 -1 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 2007 2073 2127 2186 2233 2252 2228 2148 2041 1958 1909 1944 2025 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.0 14.4 16.4 18.6 20.2 21.1 21.5 21.4 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.5 127.5 128.5 129.5 131.3 132.8 133.5 133.3 133.1 132.9 133.3 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 6 4 0 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 19 14 15 17 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 125.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 07/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 07/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##