* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 10/12/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 21 25 31 37 43 45 47 47 48 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 20 21 25 31 37 43 45 47 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 18 19 19 20 22 22 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 21 23 22 21 18 20 13 17 21 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 1 2 2 2 1 10 8 6 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 52 60 67 70 76 74 68 63 60 55 72 101 137 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 161 162 160 164 160 157 154 150 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 77 76 76 77 74 72 70 68 62 63 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 -9 -26 -47 -57 -33 -27 14 28 46 23 35 200 MB DIV 37 53 54 57 48 39 32 0 12 -12 13 7 -12 700-850 TADV 2 8 10 7 6 1 1 1 -2 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 369 368 421 469 523 582 664 736 822 916 978 1023 1072 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.7 100.9 102.0 103.2 105.4 107.2 108.9 110.5 111.9 113.1 114.2 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 20 21 20 30 25 24 24 22 22 24 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.8 98.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 10/12/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 10/12/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##