* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 08/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 26 29 30 32 34 35 35 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 26 29 30 32 34 35 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 21 17 13 8 3 3 4 8 14 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 -1 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 93 92 90 94 94 83 109 244 220 299 299 323 305 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.7 28.0 27.6 27.6 28.1 27.8 28.4 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 142 145 141 140 145 141 147 151 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 58 59 59 54 49 48 47 50 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -10 -9 -8 -10 20 21 34 34 34 26 36 32 200 MB DIV 16 12 23 20 28 9 16 19 56 74 68 64 77 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 3 3 3 2 3 2 0 0 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1483 1547 1645 1760 1863 2082 2276 2323 2198 2097 1962 1820 1665 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.2 14.7 14.1 13.6 13.1 13.0 13.3 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 123.9 125.0 126.2 127.5 129.9 131.9 133.7 135.1 136.3 137.7 139.0 140.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 7 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 12 18 13 16 22 11 23 25 24 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 123.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.04 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##