* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 08/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 25 26 28 30 32 32 32 33 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 25 26 28 30 32 32 32 33 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 13 12 9 4 3 10 12 14 13 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 -3 0 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 93 92 90 86 96 125 189 228 258 247 250 252 360 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 137 138 138 138 137 138 141 143 147 152 149 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 60 58 61 57 55 51 51 48 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -8 -5 -4 -6 25 42 55 46 53 52 79 73 200 MB DIV 20 29 23 27 29 31 26 34 29 53 83 93 51 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 -1 2 7 8 4 2 -2 0 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1436 1485 1563 1667 1759 1992 2242 2007 1721 1443 1212 1046 954 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.4 16.2 15.9 15.2 14.3 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.4 124.6 125.9 127.3 130.3 133.2 136.1 138.9 141.7 144.3 146.6 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 12 13 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 7 10 8 18 11 17 17 17 13 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 122.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.30 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.8% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 5.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##