* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 08/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 25 26 27 29 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 25 26 27 29 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 20 19 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 15 10 6 4 3 8 14 17 19 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 94 94 96 96 85 194 207 211 240 243 236 225 228 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.7 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 134 133 133 131 133 137 135 135 139 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 58 57 57 58 55 54 51 48 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -3 -10 -5 -7 11 42 58 48 43 45 49 57 200 MB DIV 21 16 34 23 19 37 27 29 24 27 53 26 30 700-850 TADV -4 1 3 2 0 11 10 6 8 6 7 7 4 LAND (KM) 1391 1406 1482 1576 1674 1926 2209 1897 1523 1147 794 490 316 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.6 17.4 17.1 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.6 123.8 125.2 126.7 130.1 133.5 136.9 140.5 144.1 147.6 150.9 154.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 17 17 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 4 6 4 7 2 12 7 10 8 11 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 121.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.31 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.5% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##