* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 08/20/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 33 33 32 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 33 33 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 20 19 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 16 11 7 2 4 8 12 16 21 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 99 101 99 108 96 168 226 225 227 236 231 225 224 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.2 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 140 138 134 130 130 130 128 126 128 139 140 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 58 58 57 57 55 54 50 47 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -5 -9 -4 1 33 64 61 54 57 25 12 200 MB DIV 14 10 20 25 20 23 20 31 24 40 29 16 1 700-850 TADV -8 -3 0 2 0 8 8 15 3 11 10 10 7 LAND (KM) 1389 1398 1469 1550 1639 1862 2134 1928 1539 1128 730 335 40 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.0 123.3 124.6 126.1 129.5 133.0 136.5 140.2 144.1 147.9 151.7 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 14 15 16 17 17 19 18 18 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 7 8 5 2 1 3 0 0 1 9 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 121.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/20/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.30 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 4.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/20/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##