* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 08/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 28 30 34 39 40 41 44 43 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 28 30 34 39 40 41 44 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 21 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 17 12 11 8 1 2 4 7 15 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 4 3 1 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 78 105 104 111 116 104 96 10 265 253 238 237 227 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 145 142 135 135 133 131 131 130 134 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 7 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 59 60 60 59 57 55 52 47 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 8 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR -4 2 -1 0 -1 2 26 52 58 56 49 48 21 200 MB DIV 28 21 29 21 11 15 29 13 28 27 34 22 6 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 1 1 0 3 -1 1 0 -2 6 2 LAND (KM) 1458 1485 1544 1621 1711 1882 2131 1987 1629 1249 881 506 161 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.2 123.4 124.8 126.3 129.3 132.6 136.0 139.4 143.0 146.5 150.1 153.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 15 14 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 14 13 13 6 7 7 3 3 6 4 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. 0. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 14. 15. 16. 19. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 121.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.22 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.95 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.7% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 4.8% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##