* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 08/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 36 40 44 45 46 47 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 36 40 44 45 46 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 16 13 10 7 4 5 8 7 11 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 3 -1 -1 0 0 2 -1 1 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 38 39 56 66 87 98 147 201 220 206 202 216 207 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.5 27.4 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 154 154 153 149 141 140 133 135 136 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 66 65 63 65 63 62 60 58 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 1 2 1 4 10 25 46 73 78 74 63 200 MB DIV 94 56 43 53 40 7 14 26 35 22 26 15 4 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -6 -5 -10 -2 0 5 0 13 5 7 6 LAND (KM) 1454 1470 1504 1531 1584 1731 1888 2083 2139 1782 1436 1093 768 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.8 120.8 121.9 123.1 125.7 128.5 131.4 134.7 138.1 141.4 144.7 147.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 22 30 23 21 11 21 4 10 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 119.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.34 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.94 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 18.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.0% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 5.6% 6.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##