* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 08/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 42 48 55 60 63 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 42 48 55 60 63 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 31 32 33 34 36 37 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 16 15 12 7 6 4 2 4 6 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 6 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 60 47 37 52 64 103 134 84 134 42 121 184 218 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.7 27.5 27.9 27.7 27.5 28.1 28.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 152 155 153 153 140 145 143 141 146 146 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 69 68 64 65 64 63 63 62 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 0 5 5 -1 12 19 34 53 68 65 46 200 MB DIV 123 93 63 44 53 28 10 20 38 36 37 22 9 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -4 -4 -2 0 0 1 -3 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1440 1460 1508 1544 1583 1708 1873 2051 2288 2020 1720 1443 1177 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.2 120.2 121.3 122.4 124.8 127.4 130.1 133.1 136.1 139.0 141.7 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 11 12 13 13 13 15 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 21 20 27 35 20 15 22 14 17 19 21 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 30. 35. 38. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 118.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.35 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.9% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 7.9% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 6.9% 8.2% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##