* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 08/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 29 31 37 45 52 58 63 67 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 29 31 37 45 52 58 63 67 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 13 17 17 10 8 6 6 6 8 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 8 7 2 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 58 51 43 36 46 68 89 91 64 71 72 105 18 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.4 28.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 150 151 151 150 152 141 144 143 139 147 153 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 70 71 70 69 66 64 67 66 68 65 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -4 1 6 0 1 -4 -4 8 11 21 44 67 56 200 MB DIV 105 121 123 78 62 47 10 19 6 41 42 59 33 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -7 -5 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1500 1555 1608 1649 1682 1735 1832 1976 2128 2321 2096 1838 1583 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.2 120.1 121.0 121.9 123.7 125.7 127.9 130.3 132.9 135.5 138.0 140.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 25 22 26 31 26 22 15 20 14 15 20 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 42. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 118.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.27 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.88 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 19.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 2.0% 9.5% 15.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.5% 8.2% 6.8% 0.2% 0.0% 6.8% 9.8% 5.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##