* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 33 34 35 31 28 23 19 16 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 33 34 35 31 28 23 19 16 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 22 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 21 18 17 13 10 6 10 7 10 7 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 -3 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 57 53 45 34 41 18 22 240 231 191 179 157 184 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.3 24.6 24.3 24.5 23.9 22.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 144 141 137 134 126 107 104 106 100 90 90 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 68 70 71 66 62 57 52 45 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 13 12 13 13 11 9 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 72 59 44 44 40 40 47 60 66 50 35 5 -3 200 MB DIV 53 64 43 39 37 27 46 -4 -12 -8 -12 -3 9 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -7 -5 -5 -4 3 -2 2 1 0 8 LAND (KM) 1233 1182 1133 1087 1046 982 922 918 947 973 1026 1119 1239 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 13 9 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 116.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.06 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.4% 9.3% 5.4% 0.0% 11.1% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.0% 3.1% 1.8% 0.0% 3.7% 4.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/22/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##