* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/21/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 36 39 41 40 36 30 23 18 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 36 39 41 40 36 30 23 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 23 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 21 17 17 13 10 2 9 9 12 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 69 68 63 53 44 37 18 9 243 210 192 178 168 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.0 25.9 24.6 24.6 23.9 23.0 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 145 143 138 133 121 107 108 100 90 84 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 67 67 70 69 64 60 54 48 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 84 82 69 51 54 42 46 42 54 57 41 23 4 200 MB DIV 68 65 60 58 52 57 37 25 -15 -16 -21 -16 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -4 -8 -9 -5 -2 5 3 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 1307 1263 1222 1191 1162 1089 1016 1023 1029 1026 1079 1116 1129 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 11 9 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 21. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 6. 0. -7. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 116.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/21/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 4.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/21/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##