* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 52 57 59 58 56 51 46 38 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 52 57 59 58 56 51 46 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 42 44 44 43 40 36 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 16 18 19 16 13 9 11 9 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 2 1 1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 98 79 73 69 56 42 32 10 319 287 266 233 197 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.5 26.4 24.9 24.2 23.8 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 149 148 144 139 138 126 110 103 100 88 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 68 67 67 68 68 70 69 67 67 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 15 16 17 17 18 16 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 79 81 90 91 76 57 44 35 21 16 22 14 10 200 MB DIV 75 113 96 105 83 34 18 14 15 10 17 0 -11 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -7 -6 -3 -1 2 -1 3 2 LAND (KM) 1319 1299 1280 1238 1200 1126 1057 983 938 932 928 948 1014 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 7 6 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 20 18 15 9 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 23. 27. 29. 28. 26. 21. 16. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 115.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.22 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.67 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 24.5% 20.7% 15.3% 0.0% 17.6% 17.5% 9.4% Logistic: 7.0% 25.4% 10.2% 6.6% 1.9% 4.3% 3.1% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 17.7% 10.8% 7.4% 0.6% 7.4% 6.9% 4.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 6.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##