* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 44 48 49 48 46 45 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 44 48 49 48 46 45 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 35 34 32 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 13 17 18 20 17 15 13 12 15 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 0 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 107 41 60 59 62 55 35 37 356 335 301 275 247 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.6 24.8 23.9 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 150 150 150 146 141 138 129 110 101 97 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 70 66 66 66 69 70 70 69 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 46 74 77 82 63 44 31 32 22 31 22 27 200 MB DIV 68 70 83 96 102 87 33 22 21 12 4 7 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 -6 -7 -5 -1 0 4 0 4 LAND (KM) 1273 1337 1360 1368 1364 1286 1187 1096 987 914 891 885 883 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.3 13.5 15.0 16.5 17.9 19.3 20.6 21.9 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.6 115.4 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.6 118.0 118.3 118.9 119.7 120.9 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 17 17 17 15 10 7 6 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 19. 23. 24. 23. 21. 20. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 113.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.47 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.3% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 29.3% 13.4% 8.2% 1.7% 6.0% 5.1% 6.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 6.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 19.4% 12.1% 3.0% 0.6% 8.2% 7.7% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##