* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 35 46 54 61 62 62 59 57 53 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 35 46 54 61 62 62 59 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 32 33 33 32 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 9 13 15 20 22 23 19 14 10 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 -3 -6 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 1 6 SHEAR DIR 130 148 134 106 74 52 36 35 26 7 335 305 274 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.1 27.7 26.5 24.2 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 150 149 146 148 151 145 141 129 105 89 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 73 72 69 64 62 66 70 72 73 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 15 15 17 17 18 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 14 22 46 69 84 79 44 12 -6 -8 -12 -5 14 200 MB DIV 69 50 61 85 93 84 83 72 35 24 11 -6 7 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -3 -5 -8 -14 -11 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1266 1328 1393 1448 1504 1525 1473 1348 1183 1016 869 791 716 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.5 12.2 13.6 15.5 17.5 19.4 21.4 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.9 115.9 116.6 117.3 118.0 118.2 118.2 118.1 118.2 118.4 119.1 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 7 5 3 5 9 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 19 19 20 17 15 9 7 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 26. 34. 41. 42. 42. 39. 37. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 113.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.5% 44.0% 19.4% 12.0% 5.2% 9.0% 11.6% 17.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 8.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Consensus: 3.4% 17.5% 7.1% 4.3% 1.8% 3.2% 4.0% 6.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##