* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 6 4 10 13 14 13 11 16 16 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 15 15 13 12 5 0 5 2 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 216 225 220 167 124 99 86 88 82 59 30 25 348 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 153 153 150 149 149 147 146 146 149 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 63 68 75 79 80 75 73 67 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -25 -23 -19 -14 -4 16 28 23 7 -9 -9 -14 200 MB DIV -10 -7 -2 21 49 36 61 60 30 36 31 102 80 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -7 -6 -8 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 881 946 1014 1093 1172 1331 1491 1591 1640 1621 1561 1467 1411 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.0 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.9 11.0 12.4 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 105.5 106.7 107.9 109.0 111.2 113.1 114.7 115.9 116.9 117.8 118.4 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 30 34 29 31 18 15 16 16 17 19 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. 3. 12. 19. 25. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 104.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 5.5% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 2.9% 0.1% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##