* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 13 10 2 7 8 16 17 13 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 9 11 15 18 12 5 0 2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 181 205 223 230 223 188 74 74 67 77 70 32 38 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 153 154 156 150 147 145 144 143 146 147 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 60 62 68 75 79 80 76 72 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -20 -25 -27 -31 -18 -3 17 25 17 4 -13 -19 200 MB DIV -2 -1 -7 -5 0 58 44 47 54 35 39 36 81 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -3 -5 -7 -6 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 741 799 868 939 999 1158 1323 1472 1557 1586 1570 1492 1394 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.5 9.1 10.0 11.1 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.8 103.9 105.0 106.1 108.4 110.6 112.5 114.1 115.2 116.0 116.7 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 12 12 10 9 7 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 16 22 35 27 27 13 12 12 12 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -2. 8. 17. 22. 27. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.2 101.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##