* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 11 12 11 3 8 11 15 13 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 9 9 10 16 19 13 4 1 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 160 193 215 221 226 208 141 115 87 69 61 43 25 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 153 152 151 149 148 148 147 147 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 59 60 63 70 76 78 77 73 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -30 -26 -30 -30 -25 -12 2 8 17 4 -16 -28 200 MB DIV -12 -9 9 -3 -13 6 49 28 45 46 39 51 70 700-850 TADV 5 1 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 680 742 801 875 955 1124 1304 1486 1632 1698 1720 1717 1641 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.5 8.7 8.1 7.6 7.3 7.6 8.2 8.9 10.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 101.3 102.4 103.6 104.7 106.9 109.3 111.6 113.6 115.0 116.0 116.8 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 12 11 12 12 11 8 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 16 18 27 30 27 26 28 24 25 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -6. 2. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.2 100.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##