* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 6 8 9 10 12 9 2 5 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 12 5 3 7 9 11 10 9 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 180 217 264 239 235 237 238 231 219 187 64 61 23 SST (C) 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 162 160 161 159 158 158 152 150 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 68 67 64 65 70 76 79 80 76 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -4 -13 -11 -2 -17 -23 -38 -21 -20 -9 -3 -4 200 MB DIV 4 17 6 -4 -1 19 11 -3 5 33 32 64 90 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 6 5 2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 426 487 458 445 455 557 705 872 1044 1240 1389 1500 1586 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.0 11.8 11.3 10.6 10.0 9.4 9.0 9.0 9.2 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 95.3 96.6 97.8 98.9 101.0 103.2 105.5 107.9 110.3 112.2 113.9 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 11 11 10 12 12 12 11 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 23 27 37 24 33 33 31 28 12 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -17. -14. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -3. -1. 4. 9. 17. 24. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 94.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 22.5% 16.2% 7.4% 0.4% 13.7% 3.0% 30.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 8.7% 5.5% 2.5% 0.1% 4.7% 1.1% 10.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##