* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/16/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 17 16 15 17 21 26 30 34 37 42 48 V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 16 15 17 21 26 30 34 37 42 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 5 6 8 6 10 9 11 8 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 7 8 8 1 6 4 6 3 2 4 6 SHEAR DIR 254 228 230 274 293 251 244 244 251 228 232 188 360 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.7 30.3 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 163 169 166 162 160 162 162 156 149 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 6 9 7 9 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 69 69 68 66 67 71 74 77 76 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 12 5 1 -4 -7 4 -11 -24 -24 -19 -20 -12 8 200 MB DIV -12 -11 1 18 12 7 19 24 -6 8 33 45 54 700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 1 4 4 6 0 -2 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 361 354 364 423 378 377 466 604 737 895 1053 1205 1343 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.3 11.9 11.5 11.2 10.9 10.9 LONG(DEG W) 91.3 92.6 93.9 95.2 96.4 98.8 101.0 103.2 105.5 107.8 110.0 112.0 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 24 37 35 40 26 64 44 48 32 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 28. 33. 36. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. 1. 6. 10. 14. 17. 22. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 91.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/16/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 25.9% 17.4% 7.9% 0.4% 17.9% 14.7% 56.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 11.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% Consensus: 1.9% 12.5% 6.0% 2.7% 0.2% 6.5% 5.6% 19.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/16/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##