* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 19 18 21 26 29 31 32 38 47 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 19 18 21 26 29 31 32 38 47 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 4 4 4 3 4 11 12 7 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 8 9 8 9 6 8 6 7 6 8 6 SHEAR DIR 96 168 208 211 206 275 240 228 219 227 234 96 44 SST (C) 27.9 28.4 28.9 28.8 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 155 154 159 162 159 158 157 156 152 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 68 68 67 67 66 62 65 69 75 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 27 9 -3 -9 -25 -22 -24 -28 -31 -28 -16 0 200 MB DIV 27 1 -18 -18 -11 6 -6 10 3 -11 19 27 56 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 -4 -1 2 5 3 0 -1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 348 401 433 444 471 480 501 617 786 974 1197 1420 1608 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.5 11.8 11.6 10.9 10.0 9.1 8.3 7.7 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 90.4 91.9 93.3 94.6 97.3 99.7 101.9 104.1 106.5 109.1 111.6 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 13 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 13 11 15 23 31 30 24 39 30 20 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -14. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 1. 6. 9. 11. 12. 18. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.5 89.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 18.5% 8.5% 3.9% 0.2% 14.0% 1.5% 19.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 0.1% 4.7% 0.5% 6.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##