* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/15/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 25 29 34 40 40 42 45 50 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 23 25 29 34 40 40 42 45 50 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 21 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 2 2 2 3 5 3 7 14 11 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 12 11 9 3 6 4 6 6 10 10 SHEAR DIR 109 112 112 216 177 204 235 254 192 232 228 220 10 SST (C) 28.8 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.6 29.2 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 146 148 153 152 158 161 156 155 153 152 151 150 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 68 66 64 66 66 65 67 71 74 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 53 32 16 -3 -23 -28 -30 -23 -26 -11 -7 -7 200 MB DIV 58 34 16 -14 -28 -11 -4 10 0 5 11 20 24 700-850 TADV 7 1 1 -1 -2 0 3 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 229 361 453 490 493 567 549 623 774 973 1176 1372 1565 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.6 11.0 10.9 10.4 9.5 8.5 7.8 7.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 89.0 90.4 91.7 93.0 95.6 98.1 100.4 102.7 105.1 107.6 110.0 112.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 12 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 8 9 11 10 13 27 21 21 24 26 35 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 20. 20. 22. 25. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 87.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/15/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 31.5% 17.0% 8.8% 0.5% 23.3% 17.0% 67.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.3% 10.7% 5.7% 2.9% 0.2% 7.8% 5.7% 22.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/15/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##