* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 25 26 29 35 41 45 46 49 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 25 26 29 35 41 45 46 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 21 19 18 17 17 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 3 4 4 7 6 2 9 12 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -3 5 10 8 6 3 4 7 5 6 9 SHEAR DIR 178 140 124 125 252 261 264 265 223 208 238 228 271 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.0 28.1 28.7 28.8 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 145 146 153 154 159 159 155 151 153 150 151 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 69 67 65 64 67 65 65 67 72 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 73 55 32 9 -13 -25 -15 -32 -27 -19 -9 -1 200 MB DIV 80 62 37 22 -5 -9 -20 -11 15 -3 -18 0 7 700-850 TADV 6 7 5 1 0 -4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 121 217 354 435 461 495 558 579 716 904 1101 1282 1452 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.7 10.3 10.7 10.9 10.4 9.6 8.7 8.0 7.5 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 87.6 89.0 90.2 91.5 94.0 96.7 99.1 101.4 103.8 106.3 108.7 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 18 7 8 12 10 15 32 20 15 30 27 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 9. 15. 21. 25. 26. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.1 86.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.2% 57.7% 39.5% 25.7% 5.1% 41.3% 24.8% 73.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 1.8% 2.3% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 21.4% 13.6% 8.7% 1.7% 14.4% 9.0% 24.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/15/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##